Are The Chinese Headed For A Crash?

The CIA has released a report warning that China could be headed for a "crash" in the near future (link to the CIA report instead of a summary).

I tend to think along similar lines and could see an invasion of Taiwan as a reaction to a worsening domestic situation in mainland China. I also think that such an event could be the catalyst to a major conflict in the Pacific. That would certainly not be a good situation, to say the least.

I found the article originally on Free Republic and I thought that one commenter had an interesting comment:

If China becomes economically unstable, how in the hell would it help solve the problem by unifying with Taiwan by force? (question posed in an earlier comment)

That won't do anything but accentuate the crash and extend it into the distant future. But, as you mention, it would distract the populace from their bankruptcy. China has chosen to buy the large military items, especially Navy ships, rather than create an infrastructure to build them internally. This might indicate that China has short-term military goals and perhaps they don't plan for a necessity for a long-term projection of force through the Navy. They may be relying on their nuclear deterrent to keep China safe from major foreign powers. China's industrial expansion would be limited by two factors. One, China is a little short of oil. Two, the rest of the world might tire of buying cheap plastic electronic toys.

Posted by RightWhale, comment #13

I think that it is a very interesting point that China is buying technology rather than developing it. I hadn't really considered that point, but it does bear some serious consideration and thought about why they might be doing this. After all, their only real, substantial threats by water would be the US, Australia, or Britain and the latter two don't seem to come into conflict with mainland China anywhere near as much as we do. So why buy a navy?

If China really does experience a wreck, the worldwide ramifications could be substantial. Maybe the CIA is wrong with this assessment, and I certainly hope they are, but I'm also glad to see that they're considering and surely planning for the possibility.