What Is Moammar Up To?

This is interesting. Libya approached the US and Britain about dismantling some of its weapons programs, in an unconditional and verifiable manner. Maybe it's just the cynic in me, but what is Moammar up to?

I know that he's been trying to rehabilitate himself in the world community. I know that he took responsibility for Pan Am 103. I know that this is a momentous step forward for him, and one that's fraught with risk. But why is he doing it?

I know he wants to have sanctions lifted and that he wants to distance himself from the spectre of international terrorism. But it seems to me like the man is beginning to protesteth too much.

I'll give Moammar credit. More than any other Arab leader he seems to catch the direction of the winds in Western politics. He seems to be able to strike just that right balance where he's a thorn in the West's side, but not enough to warrant any real action (since 1986, at least).

But the spotlight isn't on Libya right now. It is focused on Syria and Iran. There was no real pressure on Moammar to conform to international norms as no one really viewed him as a significant threat at the moment. There was no great outcry for him to surrender his weapons programs. So why do it?

I worry that Moammar is one of the better manipulators of the region. He may have recognized, particularly after the recommencement of hostilities in Iraq, that he has no earthly hope of truly threatening the West - at least not through conventional means, or even conventional unconventional means, like chemical, biological, or nuclear programs. Surely he's realized that the most effective manner for threatening the West is through small, al-Qaida like, plausibly deniable terrorist cells.

But finding funding for those types of cells isn't easy, even for Moammar. So how to free the money from the treasury while winning Western brownie points?

Dismantle your weapons programs. Or even better yet, bring in the inspectors, find a way to cry poormouth, and get the West to fund the dismantlement themselves - all in the name of good global citizenship, of course.

Pretty Machiavellian, but not a bad idea if you're in Moammar's position. So how should we react?

I say, play the fool. If he asks for money to dismantle the programs, find a way to fund it. But unlike the fool, we need to step up our monitoring to make sure that he's not ramping up terrorist production. Give him a little benefit of the doubt - he has been trying for a while to rehabilitate. Trust, but verify need to be the watchwords of the day, and the best way to effect that is through engagement.

He wants the sanctions to be lifted? Lift them. Let his kingdom get exposed, for good or for bad. Let his people meet with, work with and deal with Westerners and Americans on a daily basis. Perestroika didn't work too well for the Soviets, and chances are Moammar won't fare much better.

I want to believe that this is a step in the right direction. I want to believe that Moammar is truly committed to becoming a functional member of world society. This could be one of the great bloodless victories of the war on terror.

If Moammar is being honest in his intent. Trust, but verify.