So What's Happeniing In Iran?

Well, most importantly, today is the first day of school.

Apparently, there are already some incidents of dissent and protest taking part throughout the country. If this is true, this is great news as it would mean that the students haven't lost their nerve since the end of the last term, when the government started really cracking down on them.

So now the question becomes: is Iran ready for another revolution?

This last article gives a pretty good recap of the similarities between the current situation in Iran and the Iran of 1979. The author loses some of his credibility with statements like "The Islamic Republic was voted for by an enormous majority of the people after the revolution in 1979, and this gives it a certain legitimacy no other Iranian rulers have had before." But so were Stalin, Castro and every other oppressive dictator who has learned to exploit "democracy" as a means of sating the masses.

But again: is Iran ready for another revolution, whether peaceful or violent? I think the answer is yes.

The students certainly are. And what about their parents - the children of the revolution? I am starting to sense (I have no proof that this is true, it is only my opinion) that their parents are doubting the value of the Islamic Republic. Why would they doubt it?

Because the revolution has not delivered. The Iranian people traded a single oppressor in the Shah for a board of oppressors. Things have not improved in Iran since 1979. If anything it can be argued that things are worse due to the fact that the people are now subject to the edicts and interpretations of the theothugs, which are not necessarily grounded in either precedent or reality.

If the parents truly believed in and bought into the revolution and its good, do you think that they would be tacitly allowing their children to risk themselves to effect change? I don't think they would.

Having the US military stationed in Iraq may hamper the maneuvering room of the reformists within the Iranian regime, but does that really matter? Have they truly "reformed" anything, other than cosmetically?

I think that the US military being so close both emboldens the student reformers and constrains the Iranian regime for fear of provoking us into an invasion. It may make the endgame of the thugocracy more violent, but I think it will also expedite the change that is so very necessary for the well-being and advancement of the Iranian people.

School's in session. This year's lesson should be interesting.