Planes, Trains, And Mail

Ed. Note - This was written earlier this morning during one of the many customerless periods of the day today.

As most of you know, I've been spending the last week outside, in a tent, in the Florida sun, baking my brain. I have gotten to indulge a bit in one of my other hobbies, though - I love watching trains go rolling by.

Where I sit, the CSX mainline through Orlando is maybe 100 yards away from me. I get to watch usually about 10 trains per day go rumbling past. Some days it's more; some it's less. But there are always at least four Amtrak trains rolling past - the two New York to Florida trains going each way.

But so what, it's just a train, right? Nothing special or unusual about most trains. They're just trains. They roll through town and screw up traffic. Right?

Well, you know that I'm not one for just writing about the sake of putting words on paper (or on a screen). As each Amtrak train has rolled past, I've noticed something different. Something that could explain why the airlines, yes the airlines, are hurting so, so bad.

Each of the trains rolling by a baggage car on it, just like they always have. But the car has three new words on it "US Mail Only."

It's been years since the railroads carried the mail. I think the last of the old Railway Post Office (RPO) cars was taken out of service around 1968. It was the loss of mail revenue that made many routes unprofitable and indirectly led to the formation of Amtrak.

Since the demise of the RPO most of the mail in the United States has traveled either by truck or by airplane. For the airlines, this was a great windfall. The airlines make a small fortune carrying the mail (they also pay substantial penalties for mishandling it meaning that it is only somewhat profitable). On many air routes, like on the rails before, the mail is what's making the difference between profitability and unprofitability.

So why is it significant that the trains are carrying the mail again?

When I was working for the airlines, on the morning flights we would send out usually between five and ten thousand pounds mail - on each flight. Many of those first flights in the morning were wildly profitable, even though they would usually be leaving with less than 50% of the passenger capacity.

But if that mail has switched back to rail, what is happening to the profitability of those flights? On some of them they may have been able to downgrade the equipment to something that is more efficient, but on others it may not have been possible to find an airplane that would have been able to make money. And since they can't simply drop one flight without it affecting five or ten other flights, they would continue to fly unprofitable routes.

And each time that airplane takes off with just a small portion of the mail it used to carry, more money is lost.

Now losing the mail won't be the reason that the airlines go bankrupt. It's just going to magnify the effects of the poor customer service and the overly bloated cost structures. It has certainly made the airline industry even more challenging to compete in.

The airlines that will survive will be the ones that figure out how to change the face of flying from being a chore and a challenge to being pleasant again. The smaller, decentralized airlines that can respond quickly to changing market conditions are the ones that are to figure out how to adapt, improvise and overcome the challenges before them. Customer service, not promotional gimmicks or loyalty programs, will once again become the focus of the airlines. It's a matter of survival for them.

Another train just went rolling past; another baggage car with the tiny little letters "US Mail Only." It's kind of incredible to think how the placement of those three words, on the side of a baggage car in a train, may be changing an entire industry - for the better.