The Mullahs Are Power Hungry?!?

I would hate to be an Iranian mullah today. 252 new enemies of the state have now pointed out that they may be practicing a form of polytheism, in direct contravention of the teachings of the Qu'ran.

Now maybe it's just me, but I think that this is an excellent, excellent sign. These 252 signatories can't be completely stupid. They have to realize that by questioning and challenging the basis of the Iranian nutocracy they are putting themselves at substantial risk.

It's not quite a Declaration of Independence, but it's pretty close. 252 men put themselves on the line - their homes, their lives, their families are at risk - to call for the same concept of a representative government.

The battle is now becoming clear: it is a battle for the hearts of the general population or the Army of Iran. The students and these 252 respected men have staked out their battle lines in opposition to the nutocracy.

The nuts can win by themselves - they have the weight of the State to back them. If neither the people nor the military join the neo-revolutionaries, then the battle for freedom is lost.

The general population of Iran is timid. They don't know which way this is going to go. So they're going to sit and wait unless something kicks them off the fence.

There are two things that could bring them over to the fight for freedom.

First off, the Army could side with the freedom seekers and that alone would be enough to decide the fate of the battle. Take away the doubt about the outcome and the people will join the fight.

The second thing that could bring the general population around is time. The longer the protests continue with minimal repercussions for the students, the more bold the people will become. As the regime appears to be weaker and weaker, the general population will feel more and more potent.

The one scenario I don't see playing out, this time, is the military turning on the general population or the students - unless the revolution is definitively squashed. I think that it's fairly significant that the military hasn't been front and center in trying to quell the protests. I think that it's an indication that maybe the mullahs are concerned that unleashing the military may let loose a civil war or coup that could lead to their swinging in the breeze.

I think that the students and the signatories of the open letter all realize that their best bet is to win over the general population. The upcoming propaganda battle should be fascinating to watch. Threats, bluster, cajoling, begging, demanding - I expect to see all this and more over the next few weeks as the bloodless battle intensifies.

I hope the neo-revolutionaries are successful for the sake of the students, the Iranian people and the 252 would-be John Hancocks.