US-Pakistani Relations

Last night I was reading the results of a poll taken in Pakistan by a Saudi News Organziation (I'm at work on a fake internet connection so I can't take the time to track it down now, I'll get a link to it later tonight when I get a chance Here it is.). When I first read it I thought there was some significance, but I couldn't put my finger on exactly what it was, so I didn't blog anything on it.

This morning, I had the epiphany that I had sensed last night.

The results showed among other things that 43% of Pakistanis view the US as a miliatry threat to them. Fully 2/3s of Pakistanis (or maybe it was 75%, I don't remember which exactly) believe that more Islamic law is needed in Pakistan.

Now when I found this over on Free Republic, some of the comments included a warning that the poll was conducted by a Saudi organization (does call the fairness of the poll into question as there is a good possiblity that the organization oculd have introduced some leading questions), but most of the comments were along the lines of "good to see that they're starting to fear us" or "let's use India as the middleman" or "figures they would want more Islamic law."

If these results are accurate and havn't been skewed too much by slanted questions, I see some potential problems here.

Pakistan is supposed to be, at least nominally, our friend. The US has ties with the Islamabad that go back a fairly good ways. They are not a perfect country and sometimes they do things we don't like. Often times they seem to be very opportunistic and more focused on the good of Pakistan than on the good of the region or the world.

And Musharraf is a dictator. He overthrew the government and imposed himself as the top dog. That also runs counter to our desire to see freedom and liberty spread to the far corners of the globe.

They've developed a nuclear capability in opposition to our requests to not do so. They (along with the Indians) have taken the Subcontinent to the brink of convential, and most recently nuclear, war several times. So with all this why does 43% of Pakistanis fearing the US as a military threat worry me?

Again, Pakistan is supposed to be our friend. Despite the dictator and despite the warts we have openly called them a friend.

After 9/11, they were one of the first nations to stand up in the fight against terrorism. Now maybe it was for selfish reasons. Maybe Musharraf felt the pressures of instability being caused by al-Qaida and saw the US War on Terror as a convient excuse to rid himself of those pressures. There have certainly been some very public failures on the part of Pakistan in the war. But also remember that many of the greatest successes in the War on Terror have come courtesy of the Pakistanis.

I think that Musharraf is playing a fairly sophisticated PR game. He knows that the terrorists have popular support, but he also knows that the US is his greatest protector. So he allows very public failings of little true significance to the war effort to play to internal pressure, while making sure that the real targets are nailed.

But what's happening is that some in the US are falling prey to the internal PR spin of Pakistan. Some in the US are calling Pakistan a fair weather friend (despite the fact that they have taken on this battle in the face of enormous internal pressure not to). We're beginning to put the Pakistani population on edge.

They are beginning to fear the US and they are beginning to view Musharraf as a puppet of the US. If the pressure keeps getting greater and greater, there may be an opportunity for another coup. And the results probably won't be as palatable. Another coup will likely lead to an Islamic theocracy in Pakistan.

And then the worst fear of many of the commentors on the original post over at Free Republic would be realized - a nuclear armed Islamic dictatorship.

I think it is time that we reassess our relationship with Pakistan. If they are truly our friend, we need to work towards calming some of the 43% that views us as a threat. If they are not a friend, well then 43% fearing us isn't enough.

If we don't decide soon, I think that they'll be deciding for us.

UPDATE:

I knew that by doing this at work I would miss something. And I did. I kind of missed the main point I wanted to make.

If Pakistan is our enemy, they should fear us. If they are anything but, they have no reason to fear us. We do not attack non-enemies. The British are sitting around wondering when we're going to invade London. The Canadians don't sit around pondering when we're coming for Toronto or Quebec. Even the French know that they only we enter Paris in anger is when we're throwing the Germans out.

43% of Pakistanis view their nation as an enemy of the US. I'm guessing that many of that 43% believes that Pakistan has done nothing that wrong as to become our enemy. And by and large they're correct. Pakistan should not be considered an enemy. Maybe not a friend, but definitely not an enemy.

And so we come back to my original conclusion: if Pakistan is our friend or not our enemy, we need to work on correcting the perceptions among the 43%. We don't want to allow the Islamofacists any opportunity to gain traction in their quest for domination.