Russian Contradictions

I found this post over on Free Republic. The article quoted is apparently a subscription only article, so I'll have to link just to the FR post, which means I have no idea how long it will be available.

I know that the United States often gets accused of taking contradictory positions. But these two from the Russians are a little tough to swallow.

First, the Russians are expressing concern about Iran's nuclear program. They even want to engage in "an exhaustive discussion of this problem" (italics mine) at the next IAEA meeting. You know, the one at which we want to declare Iran in violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty? Sounds like the Russians are in pretty good agreement with us about the fact that a problem exists on their southern border, right?

Not exactly. They still plan to keep helping the Iranians in their construction of a reactor in Bushehr.

Now maybe there's just a slight disconnect between the Foreign Ministry and the Atomic Energy Ministry. Maybe some internal discussion will bring clarification as to what the true position of the Russian government is in regards to the nuclear program of the Iranians.

I don't think so, though. I think that the Russians are trying to play us again. They desperately need the $800 million that's coming from the deal. But they also need to try to protect their relations with the US.

So the Foreign Ministry tells us what we want to hear, the Russians are on our side. They're concerned, too. Let's keep talking about how we're going to solve this problem.

In the meantime, the Atomic Energy Ministry keeps working towards fulfillment of the contract. They keep working towards getting that $800 million into the Russian treasury. They don't care so much about the proliferation of nukes to Iran. After all Iran was a friend of the Soviet Union, right?

And when we, the US, notice what's going on and starts to make noise about it, the Russian's can blame all on "miscommunication." The AE Ministry didn't quite understand. And by that point, the reactor should be far enough along that the AE Ministry can ceremoniously cancel the contract - and complete the work using "independent contractors."

Sneaky, sneaky, sneaky and smart. But also incredibly stupid.

Yeah, they'll figure out how to outsmart us. Iran will get the Bomb with Russian help - official help or unofficial, doesn't matter. But what do the Russians get out of the deal?

They get $800 million. They also get an unstably fundamentalist regime with nuclear weapons on their southern border. Give the Iranians the Bomb and I can see them losing some of their fear of destabilizing a number of the -stan nations. I can see them fomenting a religious uprising through much of the southern tier of the former Soviet Union where Islam is strong anyways.

The Russians may very well end up with a hostile, nuclear armed, terrorist nation calling for the Islamification of the Kremlin.

Scary thought.

Now for the second item. The Russians and mainland China are trying to stop proliferation of nukes on the Korean peninsula also. That's all well and fine, although I'm not sure how much their really trying, but that's not the part that throws me.

It's this:

the security of North Korea must be guaranteed and favourable conditions created for its social and economic development

Now maybe I'm not quite catching this. NK is the most Stalinist state still left today. Repression and government control still exist to an unfathomable degree. The only way to create favorable conditions for the social and economic development of NK is to change the government. Nothing, save Kim Jung Il, is standing in the way of NK moving into the 1950s.

Yet the Russians and the ChiComs are opposed to "scenarios of forceful pressure or use of force for solving the existing problems." So are they proposing that we sit back and await the implosion of NK? Do they think that we should condemn millions of people to a life of misery through our inaction?

I think that NK is a different situation than Iraq was. Economically, it is ready to implode. Overt use of military force isn't called for, right now (who knows what next week or next month will bring). But we should be actively encouraging the final collapse of the NK economy. It will mean the end of the reign of Kim Jung Il. It won't immediately improve the lot of the NK people, in fact it will probably make their situation worse at first. But we (meaning the SK and Japanese, with some help from the US) could get started on the rebuilding of NK quicker. The suffering will happen; the implosion will come - that die has already been cast. Why would we not want to get the process over with as soon as possible? Why would we want to let the NK people continue to suffer for even a day longer than absolutely necessary?

For some reason, I don't think the Russians or the Chinese will have the answer for us.