Is The Road Map A Ruse?

Excellent article in U.S. News & World Report: "A journey without maps." As I see more and more articles like this, I wonder: what if the road map is a ruse?

The Bush Administration, much to the chagrin of its critics, isn't dumb. The "Palestinian problem" is one of the most intractable issues in the world.

The basic obstacle to settling the issue is that one side, the Palestinians, don't really want peace. With peace the failings of the government would be exposed for all to see. The kleptocracy would have to end. Even in a culture that is accepting of corruption, what the Palestinian Authority has done is nothing short of incredible. With peace though, real progress in governing, rather than opposing, must be made.

And Arafat knows that governing is the antithesis over everything he stands for.

But he also knows that he has to at least put on a facade. He has to pretend to be trying to become a man of peace, otherwise he risks losing his primary source of cash flow, the EU. So he appoints Abu Mazen, a politically acceptable (to everyone else) prime minister. He accepts the "road map" and pretends to be trying to live up to it.

But nothing has changed. He is still a terrorist. The Palestinian Authority still tacitly allows terrorists to operate from its territory. But so long as he puts on the right dog-and-pony-show, everyone is happy.

So it would seem.

What if the Bush Administration is playing the same game as Arafat? What if the road map, the prodding of Israel, and the threats to impose a solution, what if they're all just a facade?

Why would we do that?

It's actually pretty simple. We realize that Arafat is an unreformed and unwilling to reform terrorist. Until Arafat is gone and the PA reformed from the education ministry to the foreign ministry, nothing is going to change. Every negotiation will end in broken promises. The goal of the PA will continue to be to throw Israel back into the Mediterranean. Everything about the PA must change in order for there to be real peace.

Unfortunately we can't just go in and change it. Think people whined when we went into Iraq? The gnashing of teeth would be unbearable if we (or the Israelis) were to enter the territories with the intention of instituting the reforms the PA won't. So how so we go about it?

Run a sting operation on Yassar. Basically we bait him into showing that he has no intention of changing. We force the EU to recognize that Arafat will never be a suitable partner for peace. During this last round of Arafat exposure, the EU has begun to admit that he isn't quite the man of peace they want him to be, so they pushed for Abu Mazen.

It's not much of a change, but it's something. It's possible evidence that the EU is starting to understand the true intentions of the various actors in this grand play.

But they haven't completely seen the light. So we have to further expose Yassar. Hence the Road Map Ruse.

I'm really starting to think that the Road Map isn't so much about establishing an immediate peace as it is about laying the groundwork for a true peace in the future. We have to convince the bankers (the EU) that Arafat isn't a good risk to take anymore.

Once we get the EU to quit bankrolling the PA, then we can get stubborn with the PA and work to effect change through the Palestinian people. Once the Palestinian people realize that they have no supporters (save the world's true loonies) and a government that no one will work with, they will bring about change by themselves.

If this is the plan, or something close to it, we are relying on three things: Arafat's nature as a terrorist, EU intelligence, and the intelligence of the Palestinian people. I have no doubt that it is wise to build a plan around the first and the last - Arafat is a terrorist and the Palestinian people aren't stupid - but counting on the intelligence of the EU powers, I'm not too sure about that. The EU has lost some of its ability to think rationally as they occasionally attempt to set themselves up as a counterweight to the US.

But something as blatant and easy to see as Arafat trying to detour the Road Map might just be enough to convince Paris and Berlin of Arafat's true reluctance to have peace.

Then maybe, just maybe, we can start building the groundwork of a true and just peace.