May 16, 2003

Heating Up Iran

So word is coming out more and more that the mullahs of Tehran are really starting to feel the US pressure to behave. And they are showing signs of not being able to cope with the pressure.

Tehran is a government founded, like most in the region, on fear and repression. And like most governments of the Middle East they are seeing their power base rapidly eroding with the removal of Iraq as the worst Middle Eastern dictatorship. Relativism is no longer their friend; they are now the worst kid on the block.

And their people hate it. The internal pressure from the population to reform is getting greater and greater every day. The regime tries to repress the movement through jail time, removal of rights, and denial of basic human rights. But they are too late.

The pressure will continue to grow within Iran. Members of the government are talking about reform. They have introduced bills and have made speeches - all of which have been shot down by the clerics. But the fact that they can say these things is a step in the direction of reform.

Every time a proposal comes out, liberty gains a little more strength. Every time a cleric is challenged the light of liberty glows a little brighter. Pretty soon, it will be light enough to see the way to freedom. And at that point the second Iranian Revolution will begin.

Most in America and the west feel that we should wait for the Revolution to occur naturally on its own. They express the opinion that if we instigate the Revolution it will somehow be less meaningful and less likely to succeed.

But to wait for it to happen naturally is a mistake. It is in our interest to see a regime change in Tehran as soon as practically possible.

And during the liberation of Iraq, we ended up taking control of a group of Iranians that could greatly help us to advance our cause, the Mujaheddin. How can this group, labeled "terrorists" by the State Department, help us?

First of all, the have shown signs of being willing to cooperate with us. They actively worked with the US V Corps to help prevent Iranian insurgents from entering Iraq. This may very well end up being an alliance of convenience for both of us, but if it's mutually beneficial, so what?

What we need to do is to expel the group from Iraq. Give them back their weapons, give them solid, reliable intelligence data to allow them to establish themselves in Iranian territory, and then kick them across the border with nothing more than a thank you and a promise.

We need to promise to protect them as allies. We need to be seen as guaranteeing their security. The world needs to know that if the Mujaheddin are attacked in Iran, the US military will come riding in to the rescue. It might bring us into conflict with Tehran on a schedule other than of our choosing, but the US military is great because of its ability to adapt on the fly.

So what would that accomplish? The Iranian regime would become massively destabilized. They would have reform pressure from within, the pressure of freedom from without, and an unassailable insurgency in country. Right now the mullahs can reasonably juggle two threats, adding a third - especially if it is a substantial one - would exponentially increase the likelihood of a fatal mistake by the clerics.

Expelling the Mujaheddin is like sending in more batteries for the light of liberty. The weakness of the regime's foundations would become more exposed to the harsh light that seeks to bring it down. Anything that accelerates the process of revolution is worth looking into.

Tehran has been showing signs of cracking under the pressure. If we truly want to reorder the Middle East we need to put Iran (and Syria and Saudi Arabia and others) into the pressure cooker.

The clerics have been stewing over our overwhelming military victory in Iraq. Wouldn't it be something for them to look around to find that we have made stew of them?


Posted by Chris at May 16, 2003 11:07 PM | TrackBack | Linked by:
Blogmonger: For all your warblogging needs linked with Chris Noble has some more thoughts on Iran

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