India's Attack Subs & Pakistan

Venomous Kate left a comment on my “Pakistan Taking A Page From Syria” post in which reminds me about the deal between India and Russia to sell the Indian Navy two nuclear submarines. It’s a very, very good point, but it also bears out my point.

When I first read the comment it jogged the memory in my mind of having seen something about India buying a couple of Russian nuke boats, but I couldn’t remember the details. So I went searching on GlobalSecurity.org while I was at work today.

The two subs that India is buying are both attack subs. In the grand scheme of the Indo-Pakistani military balance of power, they actually have very little effect. Let me explain why.

The Russians essentially built three types of nuclear subs: ballistic missile subs, guided missile subs and the fast attack subs. Each type of sub had its own place in the Soviet Naval order.

The ballistic missile subs, or boomers, we’re the big boats, with the big missiles, that could change the balance of power between India and Pakistan. Actually, if the Russians were to sell one of their boomers it could change the balance of power in the world, period. The firepower on each of these subs was and is significant.

The guided missile subs were next in the pecking order. The Soviets never seemed to get a good, quality, all purpose submarine like the US Los Angeles class. As a result, when the Soviets needed a standoff attack sub, they had to create an entirely new class of sub. These were the subs that had the medium range conventional warhead missiles that could be used against ships or land-based targets at a reasonable distance. The Indian Navy actually sailed a Soviet guided missile sub under the Indian flag in the early 1990s.

And finally, at the bottom were the fast attack boats. These were the hunter-killer subs that were supposed to track and destroy our boomers and Los Angeles class subs. They were built pretty much only as anti-submarine or anti-shipping platforms. They were not designed for standoff or for land attacks.

And what the Indians are buying will be 2 Akula-II fast attack subs. Their only land attack capability is a 100 km high-explosive surface-to-surface missile that is really designed to make anti-ship attacks.

So why would the Indian Navy go out of its way to acquire two nuclear submarines? After all, it’s not as if the Pakistani Navy is this juggernaut that must be stopped at all costs. But using them in a land attack role would subject them to a very high degree of risk. So why bother?

For the Indian Navy it is a matter of prestige. They will be able to claim that they are nuclear navy and that they can threaten any shipping, anytime, anywhere in the world. Will they ever actually need or truly use the capabilities of a nuclear sub? Probably not. But they can say that they have one.

About the only way that the Indians could really use a nuclear sub against Pakistan would be to try to blockade one of the Pakistani ports. But even then, they run a huge risk.

Assume that they neutralize the Pakistani Navy so that the boats can operate unfettered in enforcing the blockade. The nukes can sit out there and sink Pakistani shipping all day long. But what about American shipping or British shipping or Chinese shipping? They can't sink any of our ships without risking another Lusitania. The risks are simply too high. So blockading Pakistani ports is a nice threat, but politically impractical.

So why would Pakistan be so eager to make an expensive symbol of Indian hubris a point of contention? The boats really don’t pose that much a threat, if any, to the well being of Pakistan.

Politically, this could be the opinion goldmine that Pakistan has been needing to find. They have already proposed the nuclear disarmament of the Sub-Continent. If India agrees to disarm, the submarine situation becomes interesting.

If India refuses to get rid of the subs, correctly claiming that they are nuclear powered – not nuclear weapons – then Pakistan can claim that the Indians have obstructed the peaceful disarmament of a volatile region. In doing so, they would shift the blame for any nuclear catastrophe to India, regardless of who fires the first shot. After all, it would be the Indians fault – if only they had been willing to part with the nuclear submarines…

If India agrees to disarm and to get rid of the subs, then the Pakistanis have still won the public relations battle. After all they proposed the disarming, not India. And the Indian Navy would have to suffer a wound to its pride, watching its two newest acquisitions go away, along with their claims to be a world-class nuclear navy.

The subs will likely become the public deal breaker for disarmament. India won’t, and shouldn’t have to, give them up. They are not nuclear weapons. They really aren’t even a threat to Pakistan. But they are nuclear. So in Pakistan’s mind, they have got to go. They could be a nuclear powered rowboat and they’d still be absolute evils as far as Pakistan was concerned.

It’s all a big political game in the court of world opinion. And Pakistan is setting themselves up for a no lose situation, much like Syria tried to do to Israel. Who will be India’s America and will stop the madness?