May 05, 2003
Pakistan Taking A Page From Syria
Pakistan has apparently been studying the Syrian playbook and is trying for a "disarmament" deal with India. Pakistan is offering to get rid of its nuclear weapons, provided that India does the same.
This sounds just a little too much the deal that Syria offered to Israel in the name of "Middle East peace." And it's just as underhanded.
Pakistan knows that it cannot win a conventional war against India. The nukes are the only real equalizer between the two countries. So why would Pakistan being willing to even broach the subject with a nation that is still openly belligerent towards it?
It all boils down to politics. By making this offer, which is politically unacceptable to India, Pakistan has won a victory in the battle of public opinion, in particular with the knee-jerk appeasers of the world. The offer had nothing but upside for Pakistan. They gained in world opinion and had to give up nothing in return.
But what if India had taken Pakistan up on the offer? Pakistan could have stalled, waiting for their stronger (and less generous) neighbor to prove that it was disarming first. Follow up the first real Indian disarmament with some terroristic escalation throughout the Kashmir and there just might be a small window of militaristic superiority for Pakistan.
So, even if India accepts the offer, Pakistan can manipulate the world opinion to their favor pretty easily by playing the appeaser, underdog role.
The only difference between this offer and the Syrian offer to Israel is that Pakistan has no Lebanon to control. Although it is possible that they could announce that some Kashmiri terrorists had "stolen" a Pakistani nuclear device. It's not as easy or as clean as Lebanon, but it could be just as effective.
Is there any real question as to why Pakistan came up with this brilliant, peace-loving idea?
Oh, I have a feeling that one of the bigger motivators was the deal India made last week with Russia to acquire nuclear submarines and other cool toys.
Posted by: Venomous Kate at May 6, 2003 04:46 AMI think Pakistan has made genuine offers of peace. We've seen musharraf clamp down on militants, allow the FBI to operate on Pakistani soil and just recently he offered to take kashmiri refferendum off the table. I think Musharraf has come to grips that India is an emerging world power and is trying his best to promote peace in the region. I think his offer of nuclear disarmament is genuine, because pakistan is afraid of hindu extremists holding too much sway over the indian government if war broke out, and nuclear weapons were used. When you read the literature of Indian extremists, they still believe pakistan is Indian territory, what better way to reclaim it then nuke the whole place and reclaim it once the radioactivity dies down (best done with a neutron bomb, which india claims to have the know-how for). So this is why Pakistan has made the offer, and I think India should put aside its pride and accept it. Lets remember that Pakistan didn't even start developing nukes until india detonated one in the 70's.
Posted by: Rizzle at December 19, 2003 10:51 PMComments have been closed on this entry in an effort to conserve disk space. If you have feedback on this entry, please email me at blog - at - cbnoble.com.


