Why Don't Things Add Up?

I was just reading another editorial in the Arab News titled “It’s All Israel’s Fault.” The author of the article makes a (sort-of) plea to the Arab people to start looking introspectively and self-critically instead of simply blaming Israel for every problem, whether it be the Palestinian issue or a hole in the bottom of their water bucket.

And I’m thinking that maybe, just maybe, the Arabs are starting towards the Renaissance and Enlightenment that their culture so desperately needs if it is to join the twenty-first century.

Then I find this article that discloses that the bomber from last night was probably a British citizen.

And then I find this article in which it comes out that Yassar Arafat got a copy of the US “road map for peace.” The EU presented a copy to Arafat, despite the fact that he will formally have nothing to do with the peace negotiations.

And then I thought about Syria and Lebanon and how they interact with Iraq and the peace process.

And it hits me. Israel may be getting set up for a sucker punch here.

Think about the situation for moment.

Saudi Arabia, which publishes the Arab News, needs to make a favorable impression with the US and UK before they end up on the hit list. What better way to do that than to pretend to honor those great American traditions of freedom of the press and freedom of dissent? Saudi Arabia has no dog in this coming fight and they know it, as does everyone else in the Arab world. They can pretend to suck up to us without it having the usual negative effect among their peers.

The suicide bomber this time was most likely British. Why send a Brit to do what any “honorable” Palestinian would do? It keeps Israel from being able to retaliate. In the past, the IDF has gone in and razed the neighborhoods and family homes of the bombers. It wasn’t ever all that difficult. They would identify the bomber and where he was from. Then they’d go take care of business in his hometown. It was designed to send a message to other would-be bombers. And it was effective. The message got out. Now the Palestinians are using third country nationals to do their dirty work. Why? It’s much harder to convince the Brits to let the IDF level part of London than it is to convince them to not level part of Gaza City.

And why would the EU bring Yassar Arafat up to date on the latest details of the negotiations? Doesn’t that sound like a job for the Palestinian Authority? Or is the EU simply trying to convey a message that in their eyes, Arafat is still relevant? Arafat is a terrorist who knows nothing but murder and mayhem. Think there’s a chance that he might have instructed that last night’s operation be carried out by a Brit to exacerbate the split between the EU and the UK? The goal might have been partially to reign in the British and to get them to support the EU line, instead of the US.

And where do Arafat’s friends the Syrians fit into all this?

Syria is generally a very vocal country. They spend an inordinate amount of time complaining about and railing against the US and Israel. Yet lately, they’ve been quiet.

There was much made of the saber rattling that went on between the US and Syria right after the fall of Iraq. There were accusations of Syria harboring top Iraqi leadership and WMDs. What if these accusations have more basis to them than even we think they do?

What if?

As I draw little lines between the dots, I can see a sinister picture forming.

Try this conspiracy theory on for size:

Saudi Arabia is talking sweet to distract us from the actual situation on the ground. They are hoping to keep us from noticing that the Palestinians have changed tactics to avoid retribution from the Israelis. The Terrorist-In-Chief for the Palestinians also knows the most intimate details of the peace plan, and therefore the best weak spots to exploit. He will continue to use third country nationals to keep up the pressure on the Israelis while he briefs the Syrians on the weaknesses of the road map.

Now here comes the really fun part:

The Syrians, with considerable prodding by the shamed Iraqi government in exile, will then use the intelligence provided by Arafat, and maybe the WMD provided by Iraq, to attack Israel when its resources are stretched most thin by attempting to comply with the peace process (do you really think the IDF won’t be needed to remove a few settlements?). This will be far enough into the future that the US military force in the region will be considerably smaller than it is now. Plus, Syria will be able to talk with Iran and will get the Iranians to tie down the US ground forces in Iraq, basically pitting the Syrian Army against the IDF. If Egypt or Jordan decided to join in the fray, we could have a replay of 1967.

It’s a slight reach to envision this all falling into place, but it isn’t so far a reach as to be out of the realm of possibility.

Things just don’t seem to be adding up right in the Middle East right now and that’s a concern to me. Saudi Arabia is talking peace and introspection; Syria isn’t talking at all. Brits are blowing up cafes while the EU briefs a terrorist on the peace process. What devious plans may be being concocted at this very moment?

Not that I think we should give up on the peace process. We shouldn’t. We just need to make sure that there are realistic goals in place. Peace in this region will not be achieved in 3 years; it might be achieved in 3 generations. But there has to be real reform on the part of the Palestinians. No more teaching of hatred. No more calls for the Jews to be thrown back into the sea. Real peace will require real effort – from both sides. Keep the carrot in front of them, but don’t be afraid to smack either of them with the stick if they get out of line.

We also need to reassess our draw down of military assets in the region. If there is any belief that this could be a viable scenario, we owe it to our Israeli friends to keep in place a force that can fight an offensive battle against Syria while still defending our Iraqi friends against Iranian incursion.

I do hope that I’m wrong.