Shaming Arabs?

I've never been real sure what to think of Paul Wolfowitz. Sometimes he seems like a genius; sometimes he seems like he's not on the same planet. His latest comments about a 'Shaming effect' on the Arab world fall into the "make me wonder" group.

Shame is a real emotion among Arabs - I won't debate that point. And I can see how the phenomenon of group shame among Arab leaders could play a part in future foreign relations. But how can we really think that shame among the Arab leadership is going to lead to peaceful regime change?

People will have one of two reactions to shame: they will either reform their behavior to avoid shame in the future or they will lash out in a fit of rage. The predisposition of the Arab population, by and large, is to lash out against the perceived slights of the two Satans. What makes Wolfowitz think that this time it will be any different?

And how does he really expect the populations of the Arab world to learn of the "shameful events" of Iraq? The media in these nations is more tightly controlled than Charles Manson. The people of these nations won't learn of the "shame" and therefore they won't be able to bring the reformist pressures that Wolfowitz thinks will come.

Most everything else that Mr. Wolfowitz says in the interview is pretty reasonable and well thought out, which leads me to wonder: is he a mad genius or just mad?