Random Morning Thoughts

OK, here’s my random thought of the morning that I had while driving into work this morning.

We gave Saddam 48 hours to leave Iraq. When you think about it, his only way out is by air. None of his neighbors will want him to drop by for a friendly visit, so leaving by ground is out of the question.

If he had an airplane on the ground ready to go, we’d probably have heard about it by now. So I’m guessing that if he is going to leave at the last second, someone else will be sending in the plane (which would also help to alleviate Saddam’s personal security paranoia, after all we’ll be less likely to shoot down a foreign airliner than we would the Iraqi Presidential jet).

But if someone like North Korea were to be trying to extract Saddam, we would need to see certain events happening by the 45th hour of the deadline. Why 45 hours you ask?

With all the air traffic around and over Iraq right now, it will take approximately 1 hour for an airplane to cross the border, land and to block in at Saddam International Airport. It will then take about an hour to refuel for a transcontinental return flight (don’t forget he can’t go around the corner here). And then it will take an hour from the block out until the flight crosses the border again and Saddam has met the ultimatum and has left Iraq.

So, at 45 hours, if we don’t see the a flight heading to Saddam International, we know that he is not intending to meet the terms laid out to him. At that point, we can say with certainty that he has ignored us and we can start rolling across the border.

I don’t believe that the final flight from Saddam International is going to happen. I’m just looking for an excuse to get the ball rolling a little early, but while still sticking to the spirit of what we said.

I’ll now go back to trying to develop coherent thoughts again.