Checkmate con't or Rope-A-Dope, Again

I was going to just put an addendum on my earlier post “Checkmate,” but realized that I had more than just a little fleshing out to do, so I decided to make a second post on the same topic.

Earlier I used a chess analogy to try to show what Bush had done to the French. Explaining this as the culmination of the grandest Rope-A-Dope yet would also be accurate. I wonder if Chirac and de Villepan found any humble pie to go with their whine and cheese. Regardless of how you look at it, Rope-A-Dope or checkmate, the French lost, badly.

Who won? I would have to say the three leaders standing there with President Bush. Dubya didn’t need this summit today and his demeanor showed it. The three Prime Ministers needed this to put forth their case for joining us and they needed the President to lend credibility and to ensure that his drawing power would help to get their message out. Portugal is the biggest winner so far, having firmly positioned themselves as an integral member of the coalition of the willing.

Saddam keeps asking who made the US the “unfair judge” of nations. That’s easy, he did. He did when he agreed to the terms of the cease-fire that ended the first Gulf War. It was his decision, the same as it is his decision whether we will fight or not.

I also needed to explain why I think the fighting will start tomorrow night. I hinted at it with the time factor (wanting to start at approximately 3 am), but I believe there is more to it than that. After 5 pm Eastern tomorrow the risk to our troops absolutely skyrockets. Once the diplomatic window has closed there is no reason for Saddam not to preemptively attack. After 5 there is no risk in his taking the first shot because he already knows that we’re coming for him. The removal of risk for Saddam also increases the chance that Saddam will pop off some gas on our troops or a sarin Scud at Tel Aviv. And if we wait very long, we face having to launch our first strike during daylight where we lose our optical stealth advantage or we have to wait an additional 18 hours for darkness to settle in again. I believe that this is too much risk. And I’m guessing that the President will want to get the men moving as now, even in the ground war, speed is life. The Iraqi Army can fight a mobile battle and the quicker we disperse, the less effective gas becomes. That’s why I think we’ll be fighting by tomorrow night, barring an unforeseen miracle.

It’s going to be an interesting 48 hours.