Checkmate

I watched the press conference today with the four key members of the coalition of the willing. I was going to immediately blog my thoughts, but I decided to wait and see what other revelations hit me along the way.

I’m glad I waited. As I thought more and more about what was said (and what wasn’t) I realized that while there were no clear winners there was a clear and definite loser (besides Saddam).

The whole purpose of the summit was to throw the ball back into the court of the UN. Bush wants everyone to “show their cards.” The French chose to show theirs early, but Bush is going to call anyways and will force the UN to make a decision. If we have 9 votes, we put the new resolution to a vote and force the French to put up or shut up. If we don’t have a vote, we have still proven that the Security Council is afraid to back up their mandates.

I spent the whole press conference trying to figure out why Bush looked so confident and bored. It’s true that he didn’t need this conference as much as the other three did, but he still looked unusually detached from the proceedings. After a while though, it hit me why he was so smug.

Think of the events of the last few months as a chess tournament. The US is the defending champion and we have two tournaments left in which to defend the crown. The first match is against the French; the next against the Iraqis.

The match against France has been going on now for a while. France has been forcing some moves, but from all appearances they were winning. But as it turns out, we were merely letting them sacrifice their pawns. Now they are sitting in a very bad situation. We took the initiative today and stripped their last defenses. They are now sitting naked in the middle of the board.

Bush got up there today and said “checkmate.” That’s why he looked so smug. He won and he knew it.

How did he win?

Simple. If there is a vote tomorrow, France has to veto it or risk losing credibility in the world. They would also lose any pretence of being a world power. But, if they veto it, they will then be seen as obstructionist and the UN loses all credibility as an organization of global stability. If there is no vote, they will still been seen as obstructionist. Either way, France will lose in the political arena. Their choice is to determine who will shoulder to brunt of their decision. I’m guessing that they will prevent a vote as they can then still pretend that they’re a world power. Their hubris is powerful enough to let them kill the UN to feed their own Gaullic arrogance.

The next match has now been scheduled against Iraq. The only thing that might save the French position is if Saddam calls time and goes into exile. As I see it, that is the only the French don’t have to admit defeat.

I’m curious though as to whether or not “tomorrow” means literally 24 hours or until the close of business in New York tomorrow. That point wasn’t clarified, but I think that it is very a very important distinction.

I’m guessing that they literally meant 24 hours, or until around 2 pm Eastern time tomorrow afternoon. Why do I say this?

The United States and our allies have a massive technological advantage at night. We own the night, absolutely. 2 pm EST is around midnight (give or take an hour) in Baghdad. If the order was made at 2, given a three-hour time to target for the most distant weapons, that would put first strike around 3 am local time. If we waited until 5 pm to give the order, it would put first strike around daybreak and we would lose three important hours of darkness in which to establish our offensive on our terms. Plus those extra hours would allow President Bush to come on television tomorrow night and announce not only the commencement of hostilities, but he would also be able to pass on the broad statements of success. The first reports will be critical in solidifying support at home and abroad.

Hopefully there will be a miracle in the morning. But I don’t expect that war will be avoided any more than there will be another talking carp. We won the first match. Hopefully, the next one will be the equivalent of Bobby Fischer against a third grader.

Checkmate.