Turkey Made A Turkey Of A Decision

OK, so I blew it. I obviously thought the Turks would be able to find a way to act in their own self interest. Instead they chose the easy way out and made the popular, but not neccessarily right, decision.

Steven Den Beste and Charles Johnson are both correct in there assessments that this decision will have far reaching consequences and unconsidered consequences for the Turkish people. In a few years, they will look back and rue this decision.

I still like Turkey. It took guts to bring this motion up in the face of substantial public opposition. It also proves that democracy can work in the Middle East, even when we don't agree with the decisions. The Turkish parliment has spoken, and we need to respect that and work through proper channels if we want to attempt to change the decision.

The war is still going to happen, even without Turkish involvement. This great democratic stand is going to be costly for Turkey. Their economy is still going to suffer that effects of war. Their supply of oil is now in serious jeopardy of being interrupted. And when the shooting starts, there won't be an Americans on the ground to protect Turkey or to protect those northern oil fields.

Of more consequence to the Turks however is what American reaction will be should there be another economic meltdown in Turkey, as there was in 2001. Back then, we really bailed them out of the consequences of poor decision making. We, the US, unilaterally pumped billions of dollars into support the Turkish Lira. If the lira comes under pressure again, the Turks will find out that the French and Germans simply don't have the neccessary capacity or willingness to help and they will also find that a pissed off US has a long memory.

I hope that the Turks are smart enough to stay out of northern Iraq. Turkish officials have publically stated their respect for the existing borders of Iraq. Shold they mess around with the Kurds in northern Iraq, they may find themselves staring at a pissed off American steamroller in a few short weeks. The Turks have blown this decision and have acted against their own self-interest. They would be wise to not do so again, as we probably won't be so kind if they decide to take unilateral action in northern Iraq.