Up the slippery slope

Diplomacy is sometimes described as the art of being able to make distinctions. I have heard some anti-war activists asking the question “So if we attack Iraq, is Iran next? Or North Korea? Are we now going to invade every country with which we have a disagreement?” The answer lies in the distinctions made by diplomacy.

Just because we invade and conquer Iraq does not mean that we are required to invade Iran. We can draw a number of distinctions between Iran and Iraq. The biggest that I see is the current level of malevolence towards the West in general and the US in particular. Over the last few years it has felt like the theocracy in Iran was starting to weaken. We can probably effect a regime change in Iran without the need for a military intervention. Simply showing them that we are willing to take action when necessary and their seeing the improvements in the lives of ordinary Iraqis should help to begin a revolution of change. It may not be a bloodless revolution, but the Iranian people are ready. And unlike Iraq, they already have some basic rights, as witnessed by the occasional Pro-American demonstrations, which will make the revolution much easier to plan and effect. The theocrats in Iran don’t like the US, but the Iranian people by and large do like us and our freedoms. When the time and opportunity come, the Iranian people will take it upon themselves to destroy the cowardly theocracy.

Our anti-war friends also often make the argument that since North Korea already has the Bomb, we should invade them first as it is a more dangerous situation. I agree that the situation is potentially more dangerous, but in actuality we probably don’t have much to directly fear from the North Koreans. Yes the North Koreans have been taking advantage of our preoccupation with the Iraq situation to engage in some pretty loud saber rattling. But, there are only two reasons for a nation to engage in saber rattling. The first is as a serious warning. This form of saber rattling is generally short term-measuring in number of days or weeks. The other form of saber rattling is what you do when you have nothing else and you’re simply trying to bluff someone into believing that you’re going to do something you’re not capable of. The North Koreans realize that the are on the verge of an economic collapse caused by a lack of energy. So they’re threatening us with a war they cannot fight or win. Sure they may be able to wipe out a city or two with nukes, but they know that they don’t have the fuel needed to fight a real war. They will absolutely lose from an inability to move. Their leadership will go on trial for various crimes and communism will once again lose to the decadent capitalists. The North Koreans’ whole point is to bluff us into providing them with the oil needed to avoid collapse. It is their only hope of avoiding or putting off the inevitable. If we simply exercise patience and restraint in dealing with the North Koreans they will fall due to their own poor choices. We don’t need to invade, we just need to keep troops in the area to call their bluff. The North Koreans don’t want war and we know it.

And for the third question, no, we won’t invade everyone we disagree with. Otherwise we’d be marching on Paris and Berlin – again. The issue with Iraq is not a “disagreement.” It is about a dictator who has been repeatedly lying about weapons of mass destruction. It is about a dictator so ruthless that he will kill his own people. Its about protecting people of every nation from the evil whims of a man with no concern for any human life, save his own. It’s about doing what’s right. This isn’t a disagreement, this is a battle in the war to protect our way of life.

Every situation we encounter in world is different and needs to be analyzed two ways: in isolation and in light of what else is happening in the world. There are quite a few anti-war people who don't want to take the time to do a proper anaylsis. They want a one size fits all answer to every situation in the world. There isn't one, which is where the art of diplomacy and its distinctions comes into play.